India's first qtr GDP growth likely to be lowest compared as of 2012: Poll .
In a quarter between January and March, India' s economy is expected to have expanded slowly in at least 8 years, partly because of the coronavirus attack, according to a Reuters poll.
The third largest economy in Asia slowed down last year, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi's countrywide lockdown on March 25 completely stopped business activity.
Aayushi Chaudhary, an economist at Mumbai HSBC, said that the activity in January and February was strong and slow in March is likely to be significantly offset by these gains.
The survey by 52 analysts on 20-25 May revealed a 2.1% increase in India's economy over a year ago in the March quarter, its weakest since comparable records were started at the beginning of 2012 and sharply less than 4.7% in the previous three months.
The Gross Domestic Product Data (GDP) estimates to be published at 1200 GMT on 29 May ranged from +4.5% to -1.5%, highlighting the widespread uncertainty over the impact on the economy by the coronavirus at this point in time.
Although the first quarter is predictive with only six economists in the survey, leading March indicators have recorded a major GDP impact in January / March already published.
Given that the business collapse was extraordinary in late March, we believe the economy will move last quarter, "Senior India Capital Economics economist Shilan Shah said.
"Extended limitations and limited financial aid mean India 's business will contract for the first time in four decades this year," added Shah.
In response to this, policy makers have expanded fiscal and monetary stimuli, but some analysts have suggested that this would at most improve credit access.